ETH Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

ETH/USDT

$1,700

NEUTRAL

51.5% up

Last update: 01:43 AM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

June 13

$2K

June 14

$2K

19%

June 15

$2K

27%

June 16

$2K

32%

June 17

$2K

35%

June 18

$2K

38%

June 19

$2K

40%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.69%

P(up): 51.8%

n=720

μ: +0.00%

σ: 1.46%

P(up): 56.1%

n=180

μ: +0.04%

σ: 3.11%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of ETH above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (4h/30d)	Jun 13	Jun 14	Jun 15	Jun 16	Jun 17	Jun 18	Jun 19
$2,200	+29.4%	1%	—	—	1% June 15 @ $2,200 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $806 Liquidity: $6K	—	1% June 17 @ $2,200 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $5K	—	1% June 19 @ $2,200 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $5K
$2,100	+23.5%	1%	0% June 13 @ $2,100 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $41K	0% June 14 @ $2,100 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $33K	1% June 15 @ $2,100 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $705 Liquidity: $18K	0% June 16 @ $2,100 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $115 Liquidity: $5K	1% June 17 @ $2,100 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $5K	1% June 18 @ $2,100 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $5 Liquidity: $5K	1% June 19 @ $2,100 Bid: 0% Ask: 2% Spread: 2.1% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $5K
$2,000	+17.6%	1%	0% June 13 @ $2,000 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $17K Liquidity: $36K	0% June 14 @ $2,000 Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $20K	2% June 15 @ $2,000 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $5K	2% June 16 @ $2,000 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $5K	2% June 17 @ $2,000 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $5K	2% June 18 @ $2,000 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.4% Volume: $5 Liquidity: $5K	1% June 19 @ $2,000 Bid: 0% Ask: 3% Spread: 2.3% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $5K
$1,900	+11.8%	1%	0% June 13 @ $1,900 Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $32K	1% June 14 @ $1,900 Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $694 Liquidity: $16K	1% June 15 @ $1,900 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $300 Liquidity: $5K	2% June 16 @ $1,900 Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $45 Liquidity: $9K	2% June 17 @ $1,900 Bid: 1% Ask: 3% Spread: 2.1% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $5K	2% June 18 @ $1,900 Bid: 1% Ask: 4% Spread: 2.8% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $5K	3% June 19 @ $1,900 Bid: 1% Ask: 5% Spread: 3.5% Volume: $12 Liquidity: $5K
$1,800	+5.9%	1%	0% June 13 @ $1,800 Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $30K Liquidity: $26K	1% June 14 @ $1,800 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $20K	2% June 15 @ $1,800 Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $15K	4% June 16 @ $1,800 Bid: 3% Ask: 5% Spread: 1.8% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $20K	8% June 17 @ $1,800 Bid: 7% Ask: 8% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $219 Liquidity: $5K	10% June 18 @ $1,800 Bid: 7% Ask: 13% Spread: 6.0% Volume: $181 Liquidity: $5K	12% June 19 @ $1,800 Bid: 9% Ask: 14% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $350 Liquidity: $5K
$1,700	+0.0%	55%	6% June 13 @ $1,700 Bid: 5% Ask: 7% Spread: 1.4% Volume: $20K Liquidity: $18K	19% June 14 @ $1,700 Bid: 18% Ask: 20% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $20K	27% June 15 @ $1,700 Bid: 25% Ask: 28% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $14K	32% June 16 @ $1,700 Bid: 30% Ask: 33% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $491 Liquidity: $9K	35% June 17 @ $1,700 Bid: 33% Ask: 36% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $607 Liquidity: $16K	38% June 18 @ $1,700 Bid: 35% Ask: 41% Spread: 6.0% Volume: $325 Liquidity: $5K	40% June 19 @ $1,700 Bid: 37% Ask: 42% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $5K
$1,600	-5.9%	99%	100% June 13 @ $1,600 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $20K Liquidity: $21K	96% June 14 @ $1,600 Bid: 96% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $17K	90% June 15 @ $1,600 Bid: 89% Ask: 91% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $14K	84% June 16 @ $1,600 Bid: 83% Ask: 85% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $18K	79% June 17 @ $1,600 Bid: 78% Ask: 80% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $473 Liquidity: $5K	77% June 18 @ $1,600 Bid: 74% Ask: 79% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $636 Liquidity: $14K	76% June 19 @ $1,600 Bid: 73% Ask: 78% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $160 Liquidity: $5K
$1,500	-11.8%	99%	100% June 13 @ $1,500 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $12K Liquidity: $22K	99% June 14 @ $1,500 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $23K	98% June 15 @ $1,500 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 2.2% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $16K	97% June 16 @ $1,500 Bid: 95% Ask: 98% Spread: 2.9% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $16K	97% June 17 @ $1,500 Bid: 97% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.6% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $16K	95% June 18 @ $1,500 Bid: 94% Ask: 95% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $15K	93% June 19 @ $1,500 Bid: 90% Ask: 95% Spread: 5.0% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $5K
$1,400	-17.6%	99%	100% June 13 @ $1,400 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $27K Liquidity: $21K	100% June 14 @ $1,400 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $17K Liquidity: $27K	98% June 15 @ $1,400 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $16K	98% June 16 @ $1,400 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.4% Volume: $8K Liquidity: $20K	99% June 17 @ $1,400 Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $16K	97% June 18 @ $1,400 Bid: 96% Ask: 98% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $16K	97% June 19 @ $1,400 Bid: 95% Ask: 99% Spread: 3.8% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $5K
$1,300	-23.5%	99%	100% June 13 @ $1,300 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $19K Liquidity: $29K	100% June 14 @ $1,300 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $15K Liquidity: $25K	99% June 15 @ $1,300 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $16K	99% June 16 @ $1,300 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $17K	98% June 17 @ $1,300 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.2% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $15K	98% June 18 @ $1,300 Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.6% Volume: $300 Liquidity: $7K	98% June 19 @ $1,300 Bid: 97% Ask: 100% Spread: 2.7% Volume: $5 Liquidity: $5K
$1,200	-29.4%	99%	100% June 13 @ $1,200 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $36K	100% June 14 @ $1,200 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $18K	100% June 15 @ $1,200 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $7K	99% June 16 @ $1,200 Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.1% Volume: $287 Liquidity: $5K	99% June 17 @ $1,200 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $500 Liquidity: $14K	99% June 18 @ $1,200 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K	99% June 19 @ $1,200 Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $5K
$1,100	-35.3%	99%	100% June 13 @ $1,100 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $38K	100% June 14 @ $1,100 Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $447 Liquidity: $6K	—	99% June 16 @ $1,100 Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $8 Liquidity: $5K	—	99% June 18 @ $1,100 Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $7K	—

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs ETH price

ETH Price

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