BTC Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

BTC/USDT

$68,000

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NEUTRAL

51.3% up

Last update: 02:39 AM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

April 1

$68K

41%

April 2

$68K

47%

April 3

$68K

45%

April 4

$68K

47%

April 5

$68K

50%

April 6

$68K

48%

April 7

$68K

51%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

1h

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.48%

P(up): 50.4%

n=720

4h

μ: -0.02%

σ: 0.98%

P(up): 55.6%

n=180

1d

μ: -0.07%

σ: 1.94%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of BTC above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:
StrikeDiff%Fair (4h/30d)Apr 1Apr 2Apr 3Apr 4Apr 5Apr 6Apr 7
$80K+17.6%1%
0%
0%
$78K+14.7%1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
$76K+11.8%1%
0%
1%
0%
2%
3%
3%
4%
$74K+8.8%1%
0%
1%
1%
4%
4%
6%
8%
$72K+5.9%1%
1%
3%
7%
9%
11%
14%
19%
$70K+2.9%1%
6%
15%
21%
24%
26%
28%
31%
$68K+0.0%53%
41%
47%
45%
47%
50%
48%
51%
$66K-2.9%98%
88%
77%
74%
71%
70%
67%
66%
$64K-5.9%99%
98%
95%
90%
87%
85%
84%
81%
$62K-8.8%99%
100%
99%
97%
94%
94%
92%
90%
$60K-11.8%99%
100%
100%
98%
98%
97%
96%
95%
$58K-14.7%99%
99%
98%
98%
98%
97%
$56K-17.6%99%
100%
99%
99%

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs BTC price

BTC Price
Select a date to view prediction history