BTC Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

BTC/USDT

$74,000

BEARISH

44.3% up

Last update: 04:52 AM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

May 30

$74K

May 31

$74K

23%

June 1

$74K

33%

June 2

$74K

39%

June 3

$74K

39%

June 4

$74K

44%

June 5

$74K

41%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.48%

P(up): 50.4%

n=720

μ: -0.02%

σ: 0.98%

P(up): 55.6%

n=180

μ: -0.07%

σ: 1.94%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

Loading prices...

View BTC markets on Polymarket

Strike Ladder

Probability of BTC above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:

Strike	Diff%	Fair (4h/30d)	May 30	May 31	Jun 1	Jun 2	Jun 3	Jun 4	Jun 5
$88K	+18.9%	1%	—	—	0% June 1 @ $88K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $28K	—	—	—	—
$86K	+16.2%	1%	0% May 30 @ $86K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $80K Liquidity: $104K	0% May 31 @ $86K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $42K Liquidity: $33K	0% June 1 @ $86K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $18K Liquidity: $24K	0% June 2 @ $86K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $17K Liquidity: $39K	0% June 3 @ $86K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $22K Liquidity: $31K	—	—
$84K	+13.5%	1%	0% May 30 @ $84K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $66K Liquidity: $118K	0% May 31 @ $84K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $91K Liquidity: $31K	0% June 1 @ $84K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $16K Liquidity: $30K	0% June 2 @ $84K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $18K Liquidity: $34K	1% June 3 @ $84K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $23 Liquidity: $13K	—	1% June 5 @ $84K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $20 Liquidity: $8K
$82K	+10.8%	1%	0% May 30 @ $82K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $79K Liquidity: $82K	0% May 31 @ $82K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $55K Liquidity: $37K	0% June 1 @ $82K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $22K Liquidity: $19K	0% June 2 @ $82K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $19K	1% June 3 @ $82K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $365 Liquidity: $12K	1% June 4 @ $82K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $7 Liquidity: $7K	1% June 5 @ $82K Bid: 0% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.8% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $6K
$80K	+8.1%	1%	0% May 30 @ $80K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $83K Liquidity: $49K	0% May 31 @ $80K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $39K Liquidity: $29K	0% June 1 @ $80K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $24K Liquidity: $25K	1% June 2 @ $80K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $18K	1% June 3 @ $80K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 1.3% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $20K	2% June 4 @ $80K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $244 Liquidity: $10K	2% June 5 @ $80K Bid: 2% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $414 Liquidity: $7K
$78K	+5.4%	1%	0% May 30 @ $78K Bid: — Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $129K Liquidity: $66K	1% May 31 @ $78K Bid: 1% Ask: 1% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $39K Liquidity: $26K	2% June 1 @ $78K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $24K Liquidity: $18K	2% June 2 @ $78K Bid: 1% Ask: 2% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $21K	3% June 3 @ $78K Bid: 3% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $16K	6% June 4 @ $78K Bid: 5% Ask: 6% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $18K	7% June 5 @ $78K Bid: 6% Ask: 7% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $10 Liquidity: $6K
$76K	+2.7%	1%	0% May 30 @ $76K Bid: 0% Ask: 0% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $195K Liquidity: $37K	3% May 31 @ $76K Bid: 3% Ask: 3% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $58K Liquidity: $19K	5% June 1 @ $76K Bid: 4% Ask: 5% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $37K Liquidity: $17K	10% June 2 @ $76K Bid: 9% Ask: 10% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $16K	13% June 3 @ $76K Bid: 12% Ask: 14% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $14K	16% June 4 @ $76K Bid: 15% Ask: 17% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $14K	18% June 5 @ $76K Bid: 17% Ask: 19% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $192 Liquidity: $6K
$74K	+0.0%	53%	8% May 30 @ $74K Bid: 7% Ask: 8% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $203K Liquidity: $23K	23% May 31 @ $74K Bid: 22% Ask: 23% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $53K Liquidity: $26K	33% June 1 @ $74K Bid: 32% Ask: 34% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $20K Liquidity: $16K	39% June 2 @ $74K Bid: 38% Ask: 39% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $23K	39% June 3 @ $74K Bid: 38% Ask: 40% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $1K Liquidity: $15K	44% June 4 @ $74K Bid: 43% Ask: 44% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $251 Liquidity: $7K	41% June 5 @ $74K Bid: 40% Ask: 41% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $45 Liquidity: $6K
$72K	-2.7%	98%	97% May 30 @ $72K Bid: 97% Ask: 97% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $233K Liquidity: $31K	93% May 31 @ $72K Bid: 93% Ask: 93% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $77K Liquidity: $20K	81% June 1 @ $72K Bid: 80% Ask: 81% Spread: 1.4% Volume: $32K Liquidity: $14K	75% June 2 @ $72K Bid: 74% Ask: 76% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $7K Liquidity: $16K	75% June 3 @ $72K Bid: 74% Ask: 75% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $14K	73% June 4 @ $72K Bid: 72% Ask: 73% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $11K Liquidity: $15K	68% June 5 @ $72K Bid: 66% Ask: 69% Spread: 3.0% Volume: $753 Liquidity: $15K
$70K	-5.4%	99%	100% May 30 @ $70K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $168K Liquidity: $53K	98% May 31 @ $70K Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $43K Liquidity: $35K	98% June 1 @ $70K Bid: 98% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $21K Liquidity: $16K	96% June 2 @ $70K Bid: 96% Ask: 96% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $22K	92% June 3 @ $70K Bid: 91% Ask: 92% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $5K Liquidity: $15K	88% June 4 @ $70K Bid: 87% Ask: 88% Spread: 1.0% Volume: $755 Liquidity: $14K	87% June 5 @ $70K Bid: 86% Ask: 88% Spread: 2.0% Volume: $2K Liquidity: $15K
$68K	-8.1%	99%	100% May 30 @ $68K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $245K Liquidity: $52K	99% May 31 @ $68K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $16K Liquidity: $37K	99% June 1 @ $68K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.2% Volume: $19K Liquidity: $16K	98% June 2 @ $68K Bid: 97% Ask: 99% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $16K	98% June 3 @ $68K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $14K Liquidity: $15K	97% June 4 @ $68K Bid: 97% Ask: 98% Spread: 0.3% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $16K	96% June 5 @ $68K Bid: 96% Ask: 96% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $731 Liquidity: $16K
$66K	-10.8%	99%	100% May 30 @ $66K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $134K Liquidity: $68K	100% May 31 @ $66K Bid: 100% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.4% Volume: $13K Liquidity: $30K	—	99% June 2 @ $66K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.5% Volume: $10K Liquidity: $16K	99% June 3 @ $66K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $6K Liquidity: $16K	98% June 4 @ $66K Bid: 98% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $4K Liquidity: $16K	99% June 5 @ $66K Bid: 98% Ask: 100% Spread: 1.5% Volume: $3K Liquidity: $6K
$64K	-13.5%	99%	—	—	—	—	—	99% June 4 @ $64K Bid: 99% Ask: 99% Spread: 0.1% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $6K	99% June 5 @ $64K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.7% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $6K
$62K	-16.2%	99%	—	—	—	—	—	99% June 4 @ $62K Bid: 99% Ask: 100% Spread: 0.9% Volume: $0 Liquidity: $6K	—

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs BTC price

BTC Price

Select a date to view prediction history