BTC Sentiment

Polymarket prediction markets

BTC/USDT

$80,000

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BEARISH

44.8% up

Last update: 03:41 AM UTC

Pivot Strikes

Strike price closest to 50% probability for each date

February 1

$78K

72%

February 2

$78K

62%

February 3

$78K

59%

February 4

$80K

39%

February 5

$78K

59%

February 6

$78K

59%

February 7

$80K

43%

Fair Value Analysis

Normal

Historical probabilities vs Polymarket odds (30d lookback)

1h

μ: -0.00%

σ: 0.48%

P(up): 50.4%

n=720

4h

μ: -0.02%

σ: 0.98%

P(up): 55.6%

n=180

1d

μ: -0.07%

σ: 1.94%

P(up): 50.0%

n=30

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Strike Ladder

Probability of BTC above each strike at resolution. Hover for details.

Price:
StrikeDiff%Fair (4h/30d)Feb 1Feb 2Feb 3Feb 4Feb 5Feb 6Feb 7
$100K+25.0%1%
1%
$98K+22.5%1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
$96K+20.0%1%
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
$94K+17.5%1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
2%
$92K+15.0%1%
0%
0%
1%
2%
2%
2%
$90K+12.5%1%
0%
0%
1%
2%
2%
4%
4%
$88K+10.0%1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
5%
$86K+7.5%1%
0%
3%
3%
4%
8%
7%
9%
$84K+5.0%1%
1%
5%
8%
11%
14%
14%
16%
$82K+2.5%1%
5%
15%
19%
23%
24%
26%
28%
$80K+0.0%53%
22%
35%
38%
39%
41%
42%
43%
$78K-2.5%97%
72%
62%
59%
59%
59%
60%
$76K-5.0%99%
75%
74%
75%
$74K-7.5%99%
86%
85%
$72K-10.0%99%
92%
$70K-12.5%99%
95%

Up/Down Markets

Average probability of BTC going up per interval

Prediction History

How market probabilities evolved throughout the day vs BTC price

BTC Price
Select a date to view prediction history